15 January 2001, 14:47  Financial markets will focus on U.S. price and production data this week

Financial markets will focus on U.S. price and production data this weekto try to gauge how fast the world's largest economy is contracting.December's consumer prices and industrial production figures due onWednesday will be combed for clues on whether the Federal Reservewill cut interest rates for the second time in a month when it meets onJanuary 31. According to a poll of analysts, industrial productionis expected to fall 0.4 percent and CPI to edge up 0.2 percent. "Themarket has been pricing in some kind of economic Armageddon, with theU.S. economy slowing down dramatically and inflation moving up," JimWebber, an economist at TD Securities, said. The outcome ofWednesday's meeting of the Organisation of Petroleum ExportingCountries in Vienna could add to inflationary pressures. OPEC is likelyto decide to cut oil production by 1.5 million barrels per day, whichwould drive prices up. "If oil moves back up above $30, then that couldbe fairly positive for the U.S. bond market which I still think is a bitovervalued," Webber said. In the 12-nation euro zone, attention willcentre on Thursday's European Central Bank policy meeting.Economists predict the ECB will leave interest rates unchanged, as theBank of England did last week. "They'll want to reinforce thestrengthening of the euro and just make sure there are no second roundeffects from higher energy prices. And then, by the middle of the year,they'll be on the rate-cutting bandwagon," Webber said.

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