12 January 2001, 15:40  OUTLOOK: 37 economists all see ECB rates unchanged Jan 18, but cuts ahead

PARIS (AFX) - The European Central Bank will leave interest rates unchanged at its governing council meeting next Thursday, but rate cuts are expected in the months ahead, according to a poll of economists by AFX News and Agence France-Presse.
Of 37 economists polled, all said they expect the minimum bid rate on the ECB's main refinancing operations to be kept at 4.75 pct at Thursday's meeting.
But 28 of the 37 economists forecast that the ECB's next rate change will be a cut. Fourteen expect this to come in the second quarter, but seven predicted a move before the end of the first quarter. Two of these forecast a rate cut at the Feb 1 council meeting.
A further four predicted a rate cut at some stage in the first half of the year, while three said they see rates being lowered in the summer or third quarter.
Of the remaining nine participants, eight said rates will be left unchanged throughout 2001 and one forecast that rates will actually be raised again towards the end of the year.
Forecasts for the refi rate at the end of 2001 range from 4.00 to 5.00 pct.
Four economists predicted a 4.00 pct end-year rate, nine forecast 4.25 pct and ten 4.50 pct. Eight said they see the refi rate still at 4.75 pct at end-year and one predicted a 5.00 pct figure. Five economists made no end-year prediction.

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