10 January 2001, 21:16 A 50 basis point cut in the federal funds rate at the Jan. 31 FOMC meeting is
virtually certain because Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan will
not want to disappoint expectations for a move of that size built into
the market, former Fed Governor Wayne Angell said Wednesday.
Angell, in a conference call with market participants and a
subsequent interview with Market News International, said he foresees
further rate cuts beyond Jan. 31, taking the funds rate down to 5% by
mid-year. He said he sees no chance of another rate cut in advance of
the FOMC meeting.
The Fed cut the funds rate from 6.5% to 6% a week ago and continued
to tilt toward further easing in its rate announcement. This week,
however, two Federal Reserve Bank Presidents, Atlanta's Jack Guynn and
Boston's Cathy Minehan, gave upbeat assessments of the economy's
prospects. They predicted real GDP growth of 2-3% with continued low
unemployment.
Angell, chief economist for Bear Stearns, said he does not agree
with the two Fed presidents' forecasts in the longer term, projecting
growth could recover to 4% in the second half. But he said he is
assuming another 100 basis points of Fed easing, beginning with another
50 on Jan. 31.
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